Years ago I read a book by a futurist named Faith Popcorn. That was the author’s name, not the book, though I could understand any confusion. Grammatically, I should have said that “is” the author’s name, not “was.” I presume it’s still her name? I’m guessing that it hasn’t always been her name. Things change. I think the book was called ‘Clicking’ and it was about things changing.
The book was published in 1998, the same year my son was born. I was enthralled at the prospect of the trend spotting and changing world outlined in the book and how to prepare for them. I was less enthralled by the early years of raising a child and I wasn’t changing the world nearly as often as I was changing nappies. (Although, they both needed changing for much the same reason.) Gweneth Paltrow won an Oscar in 1998 which, if nothing else, proves that anything is possible so there is cause for optimism. And the whole ‘raising a child’ thing distracted me from the top song and album of the year being by BoyZone and the BeeGees. The BeeGees – in 1998! Damn it New Zealand, c’mon.
To be honest, I haven’t gone back and read the book. I was just reminded of it by the topic of this month’s issue – the working world in 2016. Not wanting to ruin the magic of magazine publishing but this article’s deadline for the February issue was last December. So, in a way, I had to wear my ‘futurist’ hat. Although, if I was genuinely a futurist, I’ve had known two years ago that hats and beards would make a huge comeback and I’m both hatless and beardless. Trendiness-aside, I’m OK with that. One trend I do recall, even now, from Popcorn (not her real name) was ‘cocooning.’ Even before the internet really kicked in and the terrorism / media combo made everyone scared of their shadows, she projected that people would go out less often. Bigger houses, wider TVs, home delivery of food, and so forth were clues. Almost two decades on, we have to give her a big tick on that one.
What I liked about her style was / is that she then outlined her thoughts around the implications. I see she now runs a web service, no doubt prognosticating on the implications of drones, big data and printing our own food and pancreases. (Is that the plural of pancreas? I never thought I’d need to juggle multiple pancreases.)
I like movies set in the not too distant future. Bladerunner had a hyper-present Asian culture and some pretty bleak climatic consequences. Minority Report has Tom Cruise running from the authorities, only to have a sentient vending machine scan his retina without him opting in and suggest he purchase his favourite beverage whilst at the same time reporting him to the cops. Elysium had Matt Damon working a terrible job manufacturing the robot security guards that would oppress him and protect the pampered elite living in the clouds.
Malcolm Gladwell in his book ‘The Tipping Point’ wrote about ‘Coolhunters’ – marketing people whose job it was to trawl the streets and clubs to observe the hippest people, what they were drinking, wearing and doing, then projecting that into the next big thing on a scale. That’s a real thing and now big data makes it all the more rapid and accurate.
So, how does all this relate to the world of work in 2016? We’re past the 2015 date Marty McFly and Doc went forward to in ‘Back To The Future.’ Technically, we do have hoverboards but they’re $15,000 and they only work while over a sheet of copper. They do come with a sheet of copper but it’s only a metre long, so if you’re into remaining motionless about four inches about the ground, this may be next year’s Christmas gift for you. (Assuming you’re into Christmas or allowed to even say that word at work. You might have one of those “Season’s Greetings” situations. Or should the apostrophe in seasons go after the s if we’re incorporating every culture’s shindigs and shenanigans, then we’re probably in for more than one season of festivity. Frankly, I’m also OK with that. Better than hats and beards.)
Work 2016 – look for big data or a lite kiwi version of it impacting recruitment. Think Tinder but for workers. (If you want to hire me, you have to at least buy me dinner first.) Look for greater entrepreneurship amongst young people. It’s dangerous for society to have swarms of directionless under-employed youth without structure. That’s how gangs, terrorists and acting schools recruit. Look for European Governments initially to finally tackle that problem creatively, provoked by the refugee and terrorism situations. Eventually we’ll try some of those ideas that we were probably doing before 1984 anyway. Look for new jobs that you cannot believe exist. Faith Popcorn is spotting a trend for hot sauce sommeliers in restaurants. (Syrians could do that?) Look for whatever the next ridiculous fashion trend that supercedes hats and beards.